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	<title>Butterfly Option Strategy &#187; Stock Option Trading</title>
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	<description>A low-risk, limited-profit strategy</description>
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		<title>Stock Option Trading â Candlesticks &amp; OHLC Bars Lose their Patterns on a Distribution Curve</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoption.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:03:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Candlesticks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliot Wave]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Option Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&f]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Point & Figure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoption.net/stock-option-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-candlesticks-ohlc-bars-lose-their-patterns-on-a-distribution-curve</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Time-based charts (namely Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) fail to truly depict price.Â  This article will help you realize that time-based pattern recognition is an unreliable method for stock option trading.Some retail training firms like to popularize the myth that, âEveryone looks at these patterns in the chartsâ.Â  They are partly right.Â  Though, their use of the term âEveryoneâ applies to retail off-the-floor traders who collectively only make up ~ 15% at most, in some cases even less, of the total traded volume on exchanges, depending on which exchange it is.Which raises the question: What are the eyes of those on the floor moving 80+% of traded volume looking at?Â  Some of you have visited the exchanges organized through your broker.Â  If youâve picked up the paper scattered on the floor, all youâll find is quick math notation: addition, subtraction, division and multiplication. Nothing more.Â  No drawings of a Tri-Star Doji, Dumpling Tops or Frypan Bottoms.Â  It makes sense, because all that is in front of floor traders are screens with price data and price alone.Â  With truck loads of calls and puts to hedge, floor traders could care less how many times during the day, price touched the tail of a dragon fly doji.Â  Theyâve already pre-planned to get more of; or, offload their inventory of calls/puts at a specific strike, for a given price.As a retail option trader, trading less than 10 contracts per trade, you are not exempt from tuning your eyes to focus only on price.Â  How do you simulate the observation of price alone from off-the-floor, if you remove the use of Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi charts? Use Point &amp; Figure charts instead.Why is it valid to only use Point &amp; Figure charting for trading options? It is the only method that plots just one type of data â price alone without time â price is the only data element needed on a distribution curve.Â  The same distribution curve used in the Bjerksund-Stensland, Black-Scholes or Binomial pricing models in your options trading platform. What about other charting methods like Candlesticks and OHLC Bars?Â  Letâs take the Doji, a well known candlestick, as an example.Â  The Doji is characterized by itâs Open and Close at the same price, the High is a different price from the Low.Â  Remember with a Distribution Curve, it records Price on the Horizontal axis and Frequency on the Vertical axis.Â  To map the doji onto the relevant axis of the distribution curve, it needs to be flipped on to its side, for the dojiâs price points to line up against the vertical axis.Â  So, a price that Closes at the same price it Opened, is recorded as 2 price points with twice the frequency of the High and Low.Â  With a distribution curve, you cannot leave the lines joining the dots of the doji on the graph.Â  All that is mapped is 4 dots representing the dojiâs price points.Â  Take away the lines joining the dots.Â  Question: Whereâs the doji? Not relevant anymore. Same logic applies to any candlestick (spinning top, hammer, etc.).Â  Candlesticks lose their characteristics, once they are mapped onto a distribution curve.Â  The implication is the same for the OHLC method used to count fractals in Elliot Waves and wave counts once price is mapped in its dispersion mode, the waves lose their characteristics. To visualize this problem with time-based charts, watch the video on Why Time-Based Charts (Bar/ Candlesticks/Heikin Ashi, etc.) lose their characteristics once mapped onto a Distribution Curve.Is it necessary to reconcile a charting method with the distribution curve? Yes, 68% is equal to one Standard Deviation (?).Â  â/+1? sets the parameters for the probabilities, which you construct an option spread around to test if the strikes will be touched or not touched, from the date a spread is filled till its expiry date.Bear in mind, changing the time frames in time-based charts be it Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, OHLC from minute/hour/day/week to reconcile conflicting patterns in one time-frame against another, does nothing to help you work out the Theta as decay in a debit spread; or, the positive Theta as premium sold in a Credit spread.Â  The only unit of time required to feed into a Theoretical pricing model is the expiration date, in turn affecting the probabilities per day for the number of days that passes.Â  As the units of time in time-based charts have no value in Theoretically pricing an option, it makes no sense to use them.So, what are time-based charts (Candlesticks, OHLC Bars and Heikin-Ashi) useful for? They are useful, for trading the underlying itself.Â  When you trade the underlying itself, aside from dealing with +/- Delta (directional risk), all the other Greeks (Gamma, Theta and Vega) are equal to zero.Â  Time-based charts are relevant for trading deep ITM options as a surrogate to the product for purely directional trading of the underlying itself.Do bear in mind with options, the deeper the ITM you go, the wider the Bid-Ask spread becomes compared to the narrower Bid-Ask spread differences in the ATM or OTM strikes.Â  Have you got enough capital in the account to keep trading at the ITM strikes only?Â  This is why many retail traders with account sizes below USD $25K look for increasing lower priced products, for e.g. $20 and below, as they search for ITM strikes that are affordable for them to trade using Candlestick/OHLC/Heikin-Ashi charts.Â  By virtue of being lower priced, these products often suffer illiquid open interest at their strikes, making you chase price for an uncompetitive fill, only to result in poor price-profit performance.Â  The other extreme is to over spend on ITM strikes of a higher priced product, for example $100 and above, as you found a trade candidate using some âspecialâ pattern scanning software, only to breach the money management rule of 2%-5% per trade, in filling the order.Is there an example of a portfolio with consistent wins and limited losses that applies Point &amp; Figure methods without the use of Candlesticks/OHLC/Heikin Ashi? Yes.Â  Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ for a model retail option traderâs portfolio that only uses Point &amp; Figure techniques.Â  Other than stock option trading, the portfolio includes option trades from non-equity asset classes.Light is needed to see; but, trading enlightenment will not come from a candlestick. And counting fractals within waves only serves to oscillate your pupils. </p>
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		<title>Risk of âunlimited Losesâ in Naked Option Selling is a Myth!</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoption.net/risk-of-a%c2%80%c2%98unlimited-losesa%c2%80%c2%99-in-naked-option-selling-is-a-myth</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Dec 2009 14:37:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing In Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Naked Option Writing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Naked Writing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Selling Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Writing Naked Options]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoption.net/risk-of-a%c2%80%c2%98unlimited-losesa%c2%80%c2%99-in-naked-option-selling-is-a-myth</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For option sellers it is disconcerting to hear people say that selling naked options is extremely risky because it carries the threat of âunlimited losesâ. Nothing is farther from the truth! Itâs a myth! Itâs about time we correct this misconception and put this fear to rest. 
While theoretically the selling of naked options carries [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For option sellers it is disconcerting to hear people say that selling naked options is extremely risky because it carries the threat of âunlimited losesâ. Nothing is farther from the truth! Itâs a myth! Itâs about time we correct this misconception and put this fear to rest. </p>
<p>While theoretically the selling of naked options carries with it the potential for unlimited loses, in the real world this so-called risk is controllable to such a large degree as to be meaningless. Thousands of option sellers are successfully making a good living and growing their capital doing nothing but sell naked options. The fact is, all these successful traders are employing certain safeguards or protective trading strategies that allow them to defeat this âunlimited riskâ factor. </p>
<p>Those who believe that naked option selling has the potential for âunlimited losesâ are obviously misguided in their belief. Selling or writing naked options when done in a disciplined manner coupled with proper protective trading techniques and sound money management is no riskier than buying options. Seasoned options traders who specialize in naked writing regard option buying as a riskier, more speculative trading strategy. Statistics show there are more traders who lose money as option buyers than option sellers. </p>
<p>Options are decaying assets. They lose value each day that the underlying stock to which they are attached remains unchanged or moves in a negative direction. The magnitude of daily losses depends on many factors but the primary one being the behavior of the underlying stock. An option buyer (versus an option seller) is faced with this dilemma and can only be a winner if he correctly determines the movement of the stock and the magnitude of the move. If the market moves in the opposite direction or if it does not move at all, the option buyer is a loser. The option buyer must not only correctly foretell market direction but his prediction must be accompanied by a major move in the market. A less than significant move will still result in a loss for the option buyer. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the option seller takes maximum advantage of the decaying characteristic of options. As an option seller he merely sits and waits for the option to lose value daily to the point of being worthless on expiration day. He does not need to correctly predict market direction to generate profits. If he sells puts, he is a winner if the stock stays flat, a winner if the stock goes up. He can only lose if the underlying drops far enough to hit past his strike price position. This means that even if the stock goes down he is still a winner if the move is not far enough to hit his strike position. If he is a call seller, he wins when the stock drops, stays flat or moves up less than significantly. Admittedly, during the validity period of the option until its expiration date, the option seller faces the potential threat that the underlying stock may move continuously against him past his strike position, in which case there would be no limit to his loses. But this can only happen if the seller is careless enough not to watch and monitor his position on a regular basis! </p>
<p>Options are not âbuy and holdâ securities. All options traders, buyers and sellers alike, carefully watch their positions on a regular frequency. In their march towards expiration dates options are always in motion in tandem with their underlying stocks thereby continuously presenting opportunities for making profits or presenting danger signals for incurring losses. Option sellers are a more cautious lot than buyers and consequently sellers have developed various protective trading techniques to offset the so called âunlimited riskâ factor to the point where it is nearly a neglible risk. What are these trading techniques? Each option seller may have his own system but here are a few strategies that conquer the risk. </p>
<p>1.Â Â Â Â Â Â  First and foremost and probably the most important thing to consider when getting into selling options is the choice of securities. Highly volatile stocks are most susceptible to the highest risks because of their potential for making dramatic price moves up or down. While volatile stocks tend to offer attractive option premiums, this benefit can be cancelled by the higher risk of a major negative move. A price gap out in a stock can cause severe losses. Conservative option sellers who make a living or grow their wealth selling options will often tend to play ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) or Indexes instead of stocks. These securities seldom undergo dramatic one day moves and it is even less vulnerable to price gap outs. </p>
<p>2.Â Â Â Â Â Â  Careful monitoring of position â As mentioned earlier, option sellers tend to be a cautious lot and anyone who sells options and does not watch the progress of his position can only be considered dumb or stupid. One does not need to be glued to his computer screen and watch every move in the stock market. He only needs a cursory look at the market now and then to see how things are developing. When a situation starts building up where oneâs short position may be in danger, action can immediately be initiated before it degenerates into a bad situation. The option sold may be bought back immediately at a slight loss before it gravitates to bigger losses. This slight loss can be no more than what an option buyer would be exposed to in a similar negative scenario. And this is assuming the option seller does nothing more than buy back the losing position. But if his monitoring is combined with the other strategies illustrated below then the risk of loss is nearly nil. </p>
<p>3.Â Â Â Â Â Â  Â Use of stop losses â For the trader who does not have the time to occasionally watch the market he may use stop losses on his positions at the same time that he initiates the short positions. There is no need to explain here what a stop loss is as it is presumed anybody who is in the stock and options market knows what this is. Additionally, with the advent of online trading, electronic alerts can be initiated with brokers so that when a perilous situation starts developing an automatic alert signal is sent to the traderâs email, iphone, or cell phone. </p>
<p>4.Â Â Â Â Â Â  Use of credit spreads â Here again there is little need to explain what a credit spread is as once more it is assumed that options traders know what this strategy entails. This trading method coupled with careful monitoring and the use of the stop loss is enough to almost guarantee that the option trader will never be exposed to the fear of âunlimited lossâ. </p>
<p>5.Â Â Â Â Â Â  Use of the roll-out feature of options â This is one strategy that is not being used to maximum advantage by many option sellers. Based on their personal trading experiences and extensive use of this feature those who have been using it swear by it as a powerful defensive strategy in preventing losses in option selling. </p>
<p>Strategy number 5 above is effective enough when used alone and by itself, but when combined with the other strategies above, the whole system becomes a formidable program that almost totally eliminates losses in option selling. One particular options seller has personally developed his own system of using a combination of all the above in his option trading activities and he says with much confidence that he sleeps very well at night thinking he will never ever be subjected to the so called risk of âunlimited lossesâ. He has written an e-book about his system and in it he describes in much detail the methodology he uses in overcoming the risk. Anyone interested may visit his web site at: http://www.theoptionseller.com </p>
<p>For those who are contemplating of getting into the option selling business, pay no heed to the naysayers. Next time you hear someone say ânaked option selling is extremely risky due to the potential for unlimited lossesâ that person is most likely an option buyer who has never ventured into the lucrative field of option selling. His remark obviously comes from his ignorance of the inner workings of options and the various safeguards available to the option seller. To the knowledgeable option seller the risk of losing money is less than the risk facing the option buyer. </p>
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		<title>Option Trading Tip &#8211; Are You A Jack Of All Trades &amp; A Master Of None?</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoption.net/option-trading-tip-are-you-a-jack-of-all-trades-a-master-of-none</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:41:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Trading Tip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I make a living out of trading options&#8230;and a pretty good one at that!  
For a long time I couldn&#8217;t say those words as I struggled just to hold on to my capital, let alone make it grow. 
Though there were several reasons why I struggled (including being grossly undercapitalized and at the same [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I make a living out of trading options&#8230;and a pretty good one at that!  </p>
<p>For a long time I couldn&#8217;t say those words as I struggled just to hold on to my capital, let alone make it grow. </p>
<p>Though there were several reasons why I struggled (including being grossly undercapitalized and at the same time placing too much of my trading bank on individual trades) the main reason for my struggle I believe was a lack of focus. </p>
<p>By &#8216;lack of focus&#8217; I mean that I was constantly jumping around trying to implement too many different option trading strategies from basic call and put buying, to putting on multi leg spread tades, believing that the more complex the strategy, the greater my chance of success. </p>
<p>I had become a &#8216;Jack Of All Trades &amp; A Master Of None&#8217; and the only people that were making money from my option trading were my brokers. </p>
<p>One day a friend of mine (a very successful futures trader) said to me, &#8220;You don&#8217;t need to know everything about trading the markets to make money and be a success. You just need to &#8216;focus&#8217; and become an expert in one or at most a few different trading strategies and know exactly when and how to use them. The rest is just practice!&#8221; </p>
<p>Those words rang loudly in my ears and from that point onwards I narrowed my focus. </p>
<p>I decided that I would go back to the very basics of option trading and only buy calls and puts with the intention of becoming very good at picking the short-term direction of stocks. </p>
<p>Today, almost 2 years later and after going through a steep and often expensive learning curve, buying calls and/or puts is what brings in the largest portion of my current monthly income. </p>
<p>I also use a couple different spread trading strategies when the market moves sideways, but my main &#8216;focus&#8217; is on picking the short-term direction of a small number of stocks that I have gotten to know VERY well (through backtesting), and then buying the appropriate option based on risk vs reward and my short-term outlook. </p>
<p>The success I&#8217;m enjoying today (19 profitable months out of the last 24) is due to becoming proficient at reading stock charts and developing an option trading system that I am comfortable with and performs well and by applying my trading rules consistently. </p>
<p>Ultimately you only need to know a few different strategies to be able to trade any stock up, down, or sideways. </p>
<p>The options themselves are simply the &#8216;tools&#8217; to make money from your &#8216;opinions&#8217; and in my experience the tools that are the easiest to use, have also been the most profitable. </p>
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		<title>How to Trade Options â Diversified Trading Stock Options but Still Suffering Concentration Risk</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoption.net/how-to-trade-options-a%c2%80%c2%93-diversified-trading-stock-options-but-still-suffering-concentration-risk</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Nov 2009 02:07:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asset Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portfolio Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Applying a more complete definition of diversification can help retail option traders diversify their portfolio profitably, beyond equities.A buddy started online options trading from home, in the last 6 months. He was trading a mix of Verticals, Calendars and Iron Condors using highly liquid Indexes but was failing to get consistent profits.Â  Naturally, I asked, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Applying a more complete definition of diversification can help retail option traders diversify their portfolio profitably, beyond equities.A buddy started online options trading from home, in the last 6 months. He was trading a mix of Verticals, Calendars and Iron Condors using highly liquid Indexes but was failing to get consistent profits.Â  Naturally, I asked, âWhich Indexes?âHe answered, âDJX, DIA, MNX, QQQQ, RUT, SMH, SPY and XSP.Â  Iâve incorporated broad-based Indexing across large, mid and small-cap stocks to remove single stock exposure.Â  Having learnt how to trade options with Verticals, Calendars and Iron Condors, Iâm spreading across these various Indexes. Iâm being careful with money management, 2%-5% per trade, Iâve diversified risk, yes?âNo. He has partially diversified a portion within his portfolio; but, is still suffering concentration risk.Â  All he has really done is allocate capital across multiple products, using various option spread types; yet, all his trading capital is stuck in equities.In choosing the MNX, QQQQ, SMH, SPY and XSP, there is a duplication of stock components in these Indexes: for example, AMAT (Applied Materials) is a component of all 5 Indexes.Â  Bear in mind the MNX and the QQQQ are both smaller versions of the Nasdaq100 Index, the only difference being the MNX is an European styled cash settled Index and the cubes (QQQQ) is an American style stock settled Index.Â  Another example, Apple (AAPL) is a component of the MNX/QQQQ and SPY/XSP &#8211; both the SPY and the XSP track the S&amp;P 500, the SPY is American style stock settled and the XSP is European style cash settled.Â  Duplication is not diversification.Â  Even if you allocated capital to the smaller versions of the Dow: DJX, the European style cash settled version of the DIA which is the American style stock settled version.Â  Moreover, if you extended capital allocation to trade the RUT, thinking you are diversifying into small-cap stocks and away from large-caps, you just sunk more of your trading capital into equities.Â  Again, you cannot achieve diversification by adding more capital in the same asset class.Â  That is concentration risk in stocks. Do not confuse asset category (market capitalization) with asset class.Why bother diversifying across Asset Classes? To answer this question, Iâll use an example of a well known traded stock:Â  Apple (AAPL).Â  You wonât need to understand Fundamental Analysis to follow the reasoning.Summarizing a financial extract from its Annual Report, Apple has almost ~30% of its Net Sales distributed across: UK, France, Germany, Spain &amp; Ireland and Japan.Â  Appleâs customers in Europe are paying in EUR/GBP and customers in Japan will be paying in JPY.Â  Even though you are trading Apple directly as a US parented firm listed in the US and the currency of the parent is USD denominated, the company has currency exposure to the EUR/GBP and JPY arising from operating sales entities in those jurisdictions.Â  So, you are already exposed to currency and geographic risks by choosing Apple as a product to trade, even though you are constructing an option trade on the stock.So, it makes sense, rather than have these exposures wrapped inside the stock, where you are subordinating non-equity risks to the stock, to deliberately surface the risks in Geography, Commodities and Currencies.Â  Then, isolate these elements and trade them directly using optionable Geographic ETFs, Commodity ETFs and Currency ETFs.Is there an example of a consistently profitable and diversified portfolio to see the merits of trading options beyond equities? Yes.Â  Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ to learn how to trade options using a multi-asset class set up.Â  Notice how the profits step up gradually, from the mid hundreds to the higher hundreds; then, from the higher hundreds into the thousands.Â  While, the losses are contained within the mid to lower hundreds.Â  Diversification to trade options in non-stock asset classes using Geographic ETFs, Commodity ETFs and Currency ETFs, deliberately dilutes the concentration risk in the portfolioâs P/L.If you are puzzled, yet intrigued, you may well ask, âI donât need to Beta-weight the Deltas of my option positions; then, hedge using Futures?Â  Do I need to adjust my existing positions by embedding single options; or, morph the original spread into a hybrid option strategy?âNo, is the answer to both questions. Just as it would not make sense within stocks to say Beta-weight a company like GE to the SMH (Semiconductors Holdrs), there is even less sense to Beta-weight a broad-based Index like the SPY to an Emerging Market ETF, Commodity ETF or Currency ETF.Â  Diversification is designed to break the commonality in correlation between the asset price movements of products, in the retail traderâs portfolio structured for online options trading.Â  Adjustments fail to provide the consistency in laddering up the profits as seen in the portfolio, because an adjusted trade often fails to restore, let alone improve the original profile of the tradeâs volatility and probability that was bought or sold.How is this possible? Volatility can be added to/reduced from the portfolio, as not all Asset Classes or Sectors or Individual Companies or Countries move up/down in value ALL at the same time; and/or, ALL at the same rate. It is the volatility level across various asset classes that is targeted for diversification.To conclude, hereâs the point to reflect on.Â  While diversification alone does not guarantee a profitable portfolio, do you think you are diversified trading stock options but still suffering concentration risk? Think deeper. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies â Wrong Use of Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility Crossovers</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoption.net/options-trading-strategies-a%c2%80%c2%93-wrong-use-of-historical-volatility-and-implied-volatility-crossovers</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 13:53:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Historical Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Implied Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volatility]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Not all volatilities are constructed equal.Â  It is critical to differentiate between Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility, so retail traders learn how to trade options focused on what is material to theoretically price option spreads forward.Historical Volatility (HV) measures past price movements of the underlying asset recording the asset&#8217;s actual or realized volatility.Â  The more [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not all volatilities are constructed equal.Â  It is critical to differentiate between Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility, so retail traders learn how to trade options focused on what is material to theoretically price option spreads forward.Historical Volatility (HV) measures past price movements of the underlying asset recording the asset&#8217;s actual or realized volatility.Â  The more commonly known type of HV is Statistical Volatility, which computes the underlying assets return over a finite but adjustable number of days.Â  Let me explain what âfinite but adjustableâ means.Â  You can vary the number of days to measure the Statistical Volatility: for example, 5-10-50-200 days, thatâs how time-based moving averages and momentum/oscillator studies are built.Â  Though, it is not the case with Implied Volatility.Implied Volatility measures expected values by repetitively refining bid-ask estimates.Â  These estimates are based on the expectations of buyers and sellers. The buyers and sellers (85+% of floor traded volume is driven by institutions, floor traders and market makers) behind the bid and ask values, who do change their estimates within the day, as new information be it macro-economic news or micro-economic data impacting the underlying product becomes available.Â  What is being estimated is the underlying assetâs future fluctuation with certain assumptions embedded into the changes in information of the underlying.Â  That refinement of bid-ask estimates must be completed within finite time-bound option expiration periods. Thatâs why there are monthly and quarterly option expiration cycles. You cannot change these expiration periods, either by shortening or lengthening the number of days, to âconstructâ a time period that gives you faster or slower crossover indicators.Why point out the wrong use of Historical Volatility and Implied Volatiity Crossovers? It is to caution you against the defective use ofÂ  HV-IV crossovers, which is not a reliable trading signal.Â  Remember, for a given expiration month, there can only be one volatility over that specific period.Â  Implied Volatility must leave from where it is currently trading at, to converge at zero on expiration date. Implied Volatility (be it IV for ITM, ATM or OTM strikes) must return to zero on expiry; but, price can go anywhere (up, down or stay flat).To continually sell âoverpricedâ and buy âunder pricedâ options would eventually cause the implied volatility of every single non-zero bid option to line up exactly.Â  Meaning the phenomenon of IVâs âsmilingâ skew disappears, as IV becomes perfectly flat. This hardly happens, especially in highly liquid products. Take for example, the SPY, a broad-based Index; or, GLD â the SPDR Shares ETF in a fast market like Gold. With open interest at the non-zero bid strikes going into the thousands and tens of thousands, do you really think a retail off the floor trader is going to be allowed to âout priceâ the professional hedger on the floor?Â  Unlikely. Calls and Puts in highly liquid products, are like items in an inventory with high supply because there is high demand.Â  This type of inventory does not get âmispricedâ because floor traders have to make a daily living from trading the Calls and Puts âthey will refuse to carry the risk of mispricing overnight.So, what are the key considerations to banking in your edge as a retail trader?  </p>
<p>Where can I learn how to trade options with consistent profits focused on Implied Volatility without Historical Volatility? Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ to see a model retail option traderâs portfolio that excludes the use of HV and focuses on trading only IV. Iâll cite these actual historical events, to bolster the argument for removing Historical Volatility from your trading process altogether.27 Feb, 2007: Widespread Panic from the sizeable China sell-off in equities. If you were trading the options of an index like the FXI which is the iShares product of Chinaâs 25 largest and most liquid Chinese companies though listed in the US; but they are headquartered in China, you would have been impacted. While you can argue itâs possible to have market events recreate the ranges of the Dow, Nasdaq &amp; S&amp;P, how do you recreate the scenario of the VIX and VXN soaring 59% and 39%?22Jan, 2008: Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points prior to the scheduled policy meeting on Jan 30th, whereby the FOMC cut another 50 basis points on the date of the meeting.Â  If you were trading interest-rate sensitive sectors using the options on a Financial ETF or a Banking Index like the BKX; or, the Housing Index like the HGX, you would have been impacted. And in the current environment of rates being near zero, the FOMC while they still have a rate policy tool, they are unable to cut rates by the same number of basis points like before. What was a historical event is not successively repeatable going forward, not until rates are raised again and subsequently they get cut again.Question: How do you reconstruct history?Â  That is the history of events forming Historical Volatility.Â  The answer is in the real examples cited, as with any other financially related historical event &#8211; you cannot reconstruct history. You may be able to mimic parts of HV but you cannot repeat it in its entirety.Â  So, if you continue using HV-IV crossovers, you visually confuse yourself by searching for volatility âmispricingâ patterns that you would like to see; but, you will end up with poor profit performance instead.Â  It makes more practical trading sense to focus purely on IV; then, diversify the trading of volatilities across multiple asset classes beyond equities.Where can I learn more about trading IV across multiple asset classes using only options, without having to own stock? Follow the link below (video-based course), that uses IV Mean Reversion/Mean Repulsion and IV Forecasting, as reliable methods to trade the implied volatilities across broad-based Equity Indexes, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs and Emerging Market ETFs. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies â Treat Implied Volatility of Calls Separate From the IV of Puts</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoption.net/options-trading-strategies-a%c2%80%c2%93-treat-implied-volatility-of-calls-separate-from-the-iv-of-puts</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 03:27:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Calendar Spread]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Spreads]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Implied Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iron Condor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Implied Volatility (IV) of Calls needs separate treatment from the IV of Puts. Also, for specific options trading strategies treat the IV of both Puts and Calls as a combined bundle.Each option at each strike implies its own individual percentage value of the underlying product&#8217;s future volatility. This makes it unique from any other [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Implied Volatility (IV) of Calls needs separate treatment from the IV of Puts. Also, for specific options trading strategies treat the IV of both Puts and Calls as a combined bundle.Each option at each strike implies its own individual percentage value of the underlying product&#8217;s future volatility. This makes it unique from any other option within the same chain of a given expiry month. The individuality of an option&#8217;s percentage value at each strike is what draws the &#8220;smile&#8221; in the IV&#8217;s Skew.So, while an ITM Call has a corresponding OTM Put sharing the same strike, conversely an ITM Put has an OTM Call counterpart at the same strike, the Call must be treated uniquely as a Call and the Put uniquely as a Put. The more ITM an option becomes, its intrinsic value becomes higher and its extrinsic value is lowered. Conversely, at the same strikes where an ITM Call (or Put) gets deeper In The Money, the corresponding Put (or Call) becomes further OTM. The more OTM an option becomes, its extrinsic value rises higher and its intrinsic value is lowered. Even with ATM options, where the Call&#8217;s Delta is exactly 0.50 and the Put also has a Delta of exactly 0.50, the Implied Volatility on either side of that same ATM strike is different.While Calls and Puts appear side-by-side for a given strike, they are not identical twins to simply trade places. Think of it this way, each option has its own Intrinsic-Extrinsic fingerprint that makes that Call or Put identifiable only to itself.The logic for treating the Implied Volatility of Calls separate from the IV of Puts becomes obvious in the construction of specific spread types. Let&#8217;s break down the components making up the following spreads. </p>
<p>Now, let&#8217;s compare the above spreads with these other types of spreads. </p>
<p>Clearly, there are more spreads that require the Implied Volatility to be differentiated between Calls versus Puts, compared to the use of a combined IV. So, in choosing a data provider of Implied Volatility, make sure you get the IV data of Calls that is set apart from the IV of Puts; as well as, data that combines the IV of Calls and Puts together. That means 3 sets of IV data in one service.We have just established the structural logic for decoupling the IV of Calls from the IV of Puts. How do you apply this to a trade? Here&#8217;s how. </p>
<p>Is there a working example of a consistently profitable portfolio that treats Implied Volatility of Calls separate from the IV of Puts? Yes. Follow the link below, entitled &#8220;Consistent Results&#8221; to see a model retail option trader&#8217;s portfolio that applies this logic.To conclude, I&#8217;ll use an analogy. Though an egg comes in one shell, the yolk is separated from the white, for a different purpose that distinguishes the individual parts of that same egg. Treat Implied Volatility of an option&#8217;s anatomy in the same way. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies &#8211; Book Review &#8211; Guy Cohen, The Bible of Options Strategies</title>
		<link>http://butterflyoption.net/options-trading-strategies-book-review-guy-cohen-the-bible-of-options-strategies</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Nov 2009 01:38:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Spreads]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guy Cohen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Spreads]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://butterflyoption.net/options-trading-strategies-book-review-guy-cohen-the-bible-of-options-strategies</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most trading literature on option strategies tend to lean towards mathematical formulas to define the construction of a spread.  Guy Cohen has chosen to use pictorial logic, even with the Greeks unique to a particular strategy, to piece together the legs of a spread with diagrams.Diagrams that connect with each other are a much more [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Most trading literature on option strategies tend to lean towards mathematical formulas to define the construction of a spread.  Guy Cohen has chosen to use pictorial logic, even with the Greeks unique to a particular strategy, to piece together the legs of a spread with diagrams.Diagrams that connect with each other are a much more intuitive way to learn for those less inclined to numerical formulas.  Still, the logic of the math remains robust and intact. The layout of the book makes it easy to navigate around the text.  In addition to strategies being listed by the chapter and page there is a reference to the strategy’s main category with sub-categories, which are: </p>
<p>Guy Cohen has extensive experience of both the US and UK derivatives and stock markets.  He specializes in trading and analytics applications ranging from real estate to derivatives and has developed comprehensive business, trading and training models, all expressly designed for maximum user-friendliness. There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you will get the book. For those who have just started or are about to read the book, I’ve summarized the core concepts in the larger and essential chapters to help you get through them quicker.The number on the right of the title of the chapter is the number of pages contained within that chapter. It is not the page number.  The percentages represent how much each chapter makes up of the 302 pages in total, excluding appendices.1  The Four Basic Options Strategies.  20, 6.62%.2  Income strategies.  68, 22.52%.3  Vertical Spreads.  30, 9.93%.4  Volatility Strategies.  56, 18.54%.5  Sideways Strategies.  44, 14.57%.6  Leveraged Strategies.  20, 6.62%.7  Synthetic Strategies.  54, 17.88%.8  Taxation for Stock and Options Traders.  10, 3.31%.Focus on chapters 2, 4, 5 and 7, which makes up about 74% of the book. These chapters are relevant for practical trading purposes.  Here are the key points for these focus chapters, which I’m summarizing from a retail option trader’s perspective. Chapter 2: Income Strategies. These strategies construct spreads where part of the spread sells Theta as premium within a shorter term (typically 30-45 days), to collect income.  In its entirety the strategy may result in a Net Debit or Net Credit spread.  There are 13 types of spreads in this category: Covered Call, Short (Naked) Put, Bull Put Spread, Bear Call Spread, Long Iron Butterfly, Long Iron Condor, Covered Short Straddle, Covered Short Strangle, Calendar Call, Diagonal Call, Calendar Put, Diagonal Put and a Covered Put (a.k.a. Married Put).Chapter 4: Volatility Strategies. These strategies use spreads that are indifferent to price direction, so long as price explodes out of range.  For a given explosion in price, the volatility of the spread needs to rise for a Net Debit spread and fall for a Net Credit spread,.  There are 11 spread types are defined in this category: Straddle, Strangle, Strip, Strap, Guts, Short Call Butterfly, Short Put Butterfly, Short Call Condor, Short Put Condor, Short Iron Butterfly and Short Iron Condor.Chapter 5: Sideways Strategies. These strategies involve non-directional spreads, requiring price to drift within a confined range. As price remains range bound, the volatility of the spread needs to rise for a Net Debit spread and fall for a Net Credit spread.  There are 11 types of spreads in this category: Short Straddle, Short Strangle, Short Guts, Long Call Butterfly, Long Put Butterfly, Long Call Condor, Long Put Condor, Modified Call Butterfly, Modified Put Butterfly, Long Iron Butterfly and Long Iron Condor. Chapter 7: Synthetic Strategies. Synthetic strategies mimic the risk profile of a stock, futures or other option position by combining calls, puts with or without stock.  Though typically, most synthetic positions are either long or short stock.  If you have a 401K plan or employee stock purchase plan that is long stock, then it may make sense to consider synthetic strategies, as you are already long Delta.  There is unlimited risk for some synthetic spreads, regardless if the strategy involves stock or not.  There are disadvantages to using synthetics.  12 spread types are defined in this category: Collar, Synthetic Call, Synthetic Put, Long Call Synthetic Straddle, Long Put Synthetic Straddle, Short Call Synthetic Straddle, Short Put Synthetic Straddle, Long Synthetic Future, Short Synthetic Future, Long Combo, Short Combo and Long Box.From a retail option trader’s viewpoint, I prefer to establish positions without the use of stock.  Using stock synthetically in a position makes each trade more capital intensive than it needs to be.  Especially, if your trading account is below USD $50,000.  The use of stock in configuring these positions does not add material merit in controlling risk and there is no added monetary benefit in tying up available trading capital in a stock-dependent synthetic position that could otherwise be achieved without the use of stock.  As an options trader in the first place, you want as little to do with the stock itself as possible, other than to configure the required option position around the underlying product, which can be substituted with a cash-settled Index instead of a stock-settled Index.Out of a total of 56 strategies covered in the book, I have reduced the list down to 35 Limited Risk Spread types that do not need to include stock as part of its original construction.  Limited Risk means there is a cap to the maximum loss – “Capped Risk” is the term used in the book. This should always be the starting point of any strategy you choose to construct. Do not just look at the unlimited profit (Uncapped Reward) side of the strategy without realizing that there is an unlimited loss (Uncapped Risk) side to same strategy.Limited Risk Spreads with “Unlimited” Reward and their Directional outlook.1. Long Call.    Bullish.2. Long Put.    Bearish.    3. Put Ratio Backspread.    Bearish; reverse Bullish.4. Call Ratio Backspread.    Bullish; reverse Bearish.        5. Straddle.    Indifferent/~Neutral.6. Strangle.    Indifferent/~Neutral.7. Strip.    Bearish.8. Strap.    Bullish.    9. Guts.    Indifferent/~Neutral.    1-9 are Debit spreads: IV needs to rise.10. Bull Put Ladder.    Bearish.    10-11 are Credit spreads: IV needs to fall.11. Bear Call Ladder.    Bullish.    Limited Risk Spreads with Limited Reward and their Directional outlook.12. Bear Put Spread.    Bearish.13. Bull Call Spread.    Bullish.14. Long Call Calendar.    Bullish; Indifferent/~Neutral.15. Long Put Calendar.    Bullish; Indifferent/~Neutral.16. Long Call Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.17. Long Put Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.18. Long Box.    Indifferent/~Neutral.19. Long Call Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.20. Long Put Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.21. Long Iron Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.22. Long Iron Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.    12-22 are Debit spreads: IV needs to rise.23. Bear Call Spread.    Bearish.    23-35 are Credit spreads: IV needs to fall.24. Bull Put Spread.    Bullish.25. Short Iron Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.26. Short Iron Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.27. Diagonal Call.    Bearish.28. Diagonal Put.    Bullish.29. Modified Call Butterfly.    Bearish to ~Neutral.30. Modified Put Butterfly.    Bullish to ~Neutral.31. Short (Naked) Put.    Bullish.32. Short Call Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.33. Short Call Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.34. Short Put Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.35. Short Put Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.Other than the 35 Defined Risk Spreads that do not require stock as part of their original construction for entry, there are 6 Defined Risk spreads that need stock to configure their positions. The 6 positions that I have deliberately excluded from the list above are the Long Call Synthetic Straddle, Long Put Synthetic Straddle, Synthetic Call, Synthetic Put, Collar and Covered Call.In conclusion, for new to intermediate traders do not be overwhelmed by the 56 strategies in the book.  It’s entitled the “Bible of Options Strategies” for a reason. What is critical is to get a deep understanding of the Long Call, Long Put, Short Call, Short Put, Long Vertical Call/Put, Short Vertical Call/Put and the Long Calendar Call/Put. That is the 4 Basic Options Strategies, plus the Vertical and the Calendar – the only 2 strategies that floor traders define as true spreads. The other combinations are a mixture of the basics with or without stock. </p>
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